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2019-07-22 第296期

后照明时代的“变”与“不变”

“中国的百强榜,世界的百强榜”,本期,大照明产业研究院依旧“坚持用数据说话”,以最新出炉的“2018中国LED照明灯饰行业100强”榜单为蓝本,以“2014百强榜”—“2017百强榜”为时间轴,从榜首变更、百强业绩、门槛变化、资本影响、区域动态等多维度进行延展研究分析,以期还原一个更加真实、更加清晰的中国LED照明灯饰电工行业全貌。
2018百强榜之变与不变

变与不变

 

1、冠军业绩急速飙升,头部效应愈发明显

 

2、百强总业绩创新高,集中度再提升

 

3、上市公司表现稳定,资本市场理性回归

 

4、下滑锐增新企锐减,行业进入深度洗牌

 

5、外销领域强者登陆,细分领域比拼激烈

 

6、广东收复半壁江山,深圳继续城市第一

 

“中国的百强榜,世界的百强榜”,本期,大照明产业研究院依旧“坚持用数据说话”,以最新出炉的“2018中国LED照明灯饰行业100强”榜单为蓝本,以“2014百强榜”—“2017百强榜”为时间轴,从榜首变更、百强业绩、门槛变化、资本影响、区域动态等多维度进行延展研究分析,以期还原一个更加真实、更加清晰的中国LED照明灯饰电工行业全貌。

 

一、冠军业绩急速飙升,头部效应愈发明显

 

变:

1、冠军业绩从“42亿元”到“103亿元”再到“179亿元”

2、冠军企业从“三安光电”到“雷士集团”再到“木林森”

3、前十业绩占比从“37%”到“43%”再到“49%”

 

作为LED照明灯饰电工行业年度盛事,每年“百强榜”的发布无一例外地吸引了整个照明圈的目光,其中“冠军的争夺”更是成为关注的焦点。据“2018中国LED照明灯饰行业100强”榜单显示,今年,木林森以“年度营收179.52亿元”成功问鼎冠军宝座。这是木林森首次夺得“百强榜”桂冠,亦是其营收首次突破百亿大关。


至此,百亿企业队伍再添一员。从榜单上来看,LED照明灯饰行业目前已有两家企业实现百亿元目标。此前,《半导体照明产业“十三五”发展规划》曾明确指出:2020年形成1家以上销售额突破100亿元的企业。而今,雷士集团、木林森已先后达成百亿元目标,比规划提前并超额完成目标,这不论是对于企业自身,抑或是对于整个LED照明灯饰行业而言,意义都极其重大。

另值得一提的是,此前,木林森股份董事长孙清焕曾公开表示:“公司预计2019年业绩突破200亿元”,与之同时,2018年业绩已破90亿元的公牛集团距离百亿也仅一步之遥,加上业绩连续两年破百亿的雷士集团,“2019百强榜”冠军之争或更为激烈。


观察五届“百强榜”榜单不难发现,历届冠军业绩几乎呈几何级增长。42.14亿元、45.02亿元、80.12亿元、103.73亿元、179.52亿元……每年的冠军企业业绩都在不断飙升,且增长幅度持续拉大。


其中,“2018百强榜”冠军业绩(179.52亿元)比上一届增长幅度达75亿元,是首届“百强榜”冠军业绩的4.2倍多,更是占据了“2018百强榜”业绩总和的11%,这也反映了LED照明行业业绩两极分化现象越发明显。


与每年都在发生变化的冠军业绩不同,夺冠者面孔并非每年一换。历届榜单显示,三安光电连续包揽“2014百强榜”“2015百强榜”冠军,而雷士集团连续占据“2016百强榜”“2017百强榜”榜首位置。直至“2018百强榜”揭晓,桂冠之位才迎来一张新面孔,它就是“木林森”。


在“2018百强榜”中,不止榜首位置出现易主,曾经牢靠的前十阵营也已出现动摇。从“2016百强榜”榜单与“2017百强榜”榜单中可以看到,雷士集团、木林森、三安光电、欧普照明、飞乐音响、阳光照明、立达信、得邦照明、佛山照明、星宇股份10家LED照明企业已连续两年稳占榜单前十。


而随着公牛集团的出现,这一牢固不变的前十阵营最终被打破。据“2018百强榜”榜单显示,公牛以“2018年年度销售业绩90.65亿元”一跃登上榜单第三位,而飞乐音响则从前十阵营中遗憾出局,排名十三。


实际上,在这以前,以插座起家的公牛在电工领域实力强悍众所周知,但其业绩对于外界而言始终是个“谜一样的存在”。而随着公牛上市招股书的披露,其业绩才得以正式曝光。


值得关注的是,本届百强企业业绩总和突破1575亿元,榜单前十企业业绩总和更是再创新高,达到768亿元,占比49%,接近一半份额。另据统计,2014年-2018年,“百强榜”前十企业业绩总和分别为333亿元、340亿元、501亿元、593亿元、768亿元,占比分别为37%、38%、42%、43%、49%。

 

不变:

有变化,当然也有不变。从“2018百强榜”头部企业表现来看:在眼下这场存量市场争夺战中,市场份额会更多地向大品牌倾斜,“头部企业效应明显”这一现象或在未来更加突出。而面对大品牌的挤压,小品牌的生存空间将会被一再压缩,甚至被淘汰出局。

 

二 、百强总业绩创新高,行业集中度再提升


变:

1、百强企业门槛从“2.23亿元”降至“1.59亿元”

2、百强三甲门槛从“70.45亿元”提至“90.65亿元”

3、百强前五十业绩占比从“86%”变至“87%”

4、百强业绩总和从“1385亿元”增至“1575亿元”


据不完全统计,我国LED照明灯饰电工行业现有大大小小企业超3万家,从30000家中甄选业绩前100名的企业,入围难度远甚于“百里挑一”,为此能够顺利进入“百强榜”的企业必然是业界实力派。今年以前,与行业前些年的快速发展步调一致,百强门槛被一再拉升,企业上榜难度被一再放大,这也从侧面印证了这些年照明市场竞争之激烈。


从历届“百强榜”榜单可知,2014年—2017年,百强企业入围门槛分别为1.50亿元、1.65亿元、2.15亿元、2.23亿元。然而,令人意外的是,在“2018百强榜”中,百强门槛逐年提升的常态被改写。


榜单显示,“2018百强榜”百强企业入围门槛为“1.59亿元”,比“2017百强榜”的“2.23亿元”少了“0.64亿元”,几乎重新跌回到“2014百强榜”(1.5亿元)的水平,颇有一番“一朝回到解放前”的意味。纵观整个榜单,不仅百强入围门槛降低,榜单上的不少企业业绩也出现了不同程度的下滑。据统计,“2018百强榜”共有27家企业业绩出现下滑。


而出现这般情况的原因是多样而复杂的,其与宏观经济下行有关,也与照明行业已进入“存量市场”“增速放缓”有关。在多重压力的夹击之下,过去的2018年被广大照明人称之为“艰难的一年。


值得注意的是,越是靠近榜单前端的头部企业,反而逆市迎来了业绩的节节攀升。以榜单前三甲为例,木林森以销售业绩179.52亿元、雷士集团以销售业绩123.65亿元、公牛集团以90.65亿元占据榜单前三席位。其中,木林森2018年度营收同比去年多出近100亿元,雷士集团也比去年营收增加了近20亿元。据统计,“2018百强榜”前三业绩总和为394亿元,占百强总销售业绩高达25%。


正因在这些强势品牌高速发展的影响之下,“2018百强榜”前三甲入围门槛再次被拉升,直接从去年的“70.45亿元”提至“90.65亿元”;前十强入围门槛也被拉升,从去年的“37.52亿元”提至“38.02亿元”。与此同时,“2018百强榜”百强业绩总和同样在“蹭蹭蹭”往上涨,从去年的“1385亿元”飙升至“1575亿元”。


回看往年,近五年来,我国LED照明灯饰电工行业百强企业业绩总和一直呈现出向上增长的发展态势,从2014年的“884亿元”到2015年的“905亿元”,到2016年的“1183亿元”,到2017年的“1385亿元”,再到2018年的“1575亿元”,可谓是“一年一台阶”。


此外,今年百强榜单的另一看点是:对比“2017百强榜”,“2018百强榜”榜单前五十名企业业绩总和占比为87%,比去年及前年的86%增加一个百分点。值得玩味的是,在“前三甲百强企业业绩占比达25%,前十名百强企业业绩占比高达49%”的情况之下,前五十名百强企业业绩占比勉强保持稳定,这也就意味着头部企业的业绩在持续倍数增长,这也是行业集中度在不断走高的最好佐证。


不变:

“百强门槛下滑”“27家业绩下滑”“等背后是什么?是“百强企业总业绩飙升”,是“百强前三甲业绩占比25%”,是“百强前十业绩占比49%”。变化的是业界表象,不变的是行业依然在蓬勃发展,集中度依然在不断走高,企业之间差距依然在不断拉大。



三、上市公司表现稳定,资本市场理性回归


变:

1、从“1050亿元”到“1171亿元”,百强上市公司业绩总和占比从“76%”降至“74%”;


2、从“65家”到“64家”, 百强上市公司数量变化不大;


3、A股(港股)上市公司从“47家”增至“50家”, 新三板上市公司从“18家”减至“14家”,“新三板退市潮”带来的影响渐显;


4、A股(港股)上市公司总业绩1122亿元,占百强上市公司总业绩96%;新三板上市公司总业绩49亿元,占百强上市公司总业绩4%。

 


2018年,国内LED照明市场明显由“增量市场”转向“存量市场”。在此市场情形下,上市公司与非上市公司均面临着较大的业绩增长压力。从“2018百强榜”来看,整体而言,在IPO热情不减、新三板退市加速、并购日趋理性等资本市场氛围中,“2018百强榜”上市公司的表现可谓“稳定”,这不仅体现在企业数量上,还体现在业绩表现上,“理性回归”成为这一年资本市场的主基调。


从上市公司数量来看,据统计,“2018百强榜”百强上市公司共有64家,与“2017百强榜”相比减少了1家。其中,A股(港股)上市公司50家,比去年增加3家;新三板上市公司14家,比去年减少4家。


据悉,从2017年始,已有近60家新三板照企成功摘牌,包括去年上榜的晶科电子、升谱光电等也在此列??梢栽ぜ?,“2019百强榜”,新三板照企数量或将进一步锐减。


观察市场可发现,在新三板市场交易活跃度不够强的现状之下,除了极少数新三板照企获得融资交易,其余大部分新三板照企一直处于“无融资、无交易”的尴尬处境。因此,“新三板退市潮”或将继续在照明圈上演。


从上市公司业绩来看,据统计,“2018百强榜”上市公司总业绩达到1171亿元,占总榜单业绩为74%。相比“2017百强榜”上市公司总业绩1050亿元略有增长,但业绩占比却下滑了2个百分点,“2017百强榜”上市公司业绩占比为76%。


如此,概括来说,“2018百强榜”上市公司的表现是“数量减、业绩增、占比减”。

以上市公司自身业绩为对比轴,“2018百强榜”,A股(港股)上市公司50家总业绩1122亿元,占上市公司总业绩96%;新三板上市公司14家总业绩49亿元,占上市公司业绩4%。A股(港股)上市公司的绝对优势仍是新三板上市公司难以追赶的。


此外,另据统计,“2018百强榜”上市公司十强业绩占上市公司总业绩60%,达到701亿元,体量庞大,且“2018百强榜”前十强中8家为上市公司。

有意思的是,“2018百强榜”总业绩达1575亿元,相比“2017百强榜”增加了190亿元;而上市公司前十强总业绩增量就贡献了120亿元,,从中不难看出,行业集中度正高速向头部上市公司靠拢。

此外,翻看榜单可发现,此次已上榜的非上市公司中,公牛集团、爱克莱特、久量股份、晶丰明源、金源照明5家照企正处于IPO上市关键期。此外,未入榜的浩洋股份、北京新时空、芯瑞达以及新三板罗曼股份也已进入IPO预披露阶段。在获得资本的加持后,A股上市公司通过融资、并购等多种资本运作方式,实现了自身的跨越式发展。这或将对“2019百强榜”企业排序产生新的冲击。

对于照企而言,成功迈入资本市场也并非是“高枕无忧”?!?018百强榜”榜单显示,相比“2017百强榜”,本届共有21家上市公司出现业绩下滑。另有多家上市公司出现营收、净利双下滑,如飞乐音响、金莱特等。因此,即便是拥抱资本的照明企业也要着力“练好内功”,如此方能迎接更加变幻莫测的照明市场。


不变:

从前些年对资本市场的狂热追求,到如今的理性回归;从致力拓展第二业务、第三业务,到如今的回归聚焦LED主业,资本的魅力及功用被越来越多的上市公司越来越理性地对待。这对于LED照明行业来说,无疑是一种进步,唯有正确看待资本力量,才能更好迎来品牌发展。


四、下滑锐增新企锐减,行业进入深度洗牌


变:

1、从5家到27家,“2018百强榜”业绩下滑者较上届猛增;

2、21家上市公司,6家非上市公司,LED照企业绩下滑迎来“艰难发展期”;

3、从下滑16.69亿元到下滑21.43亿元,连续两届“百强榜”,飞乐音响业绩缩水最严重;

4、从19张新面孔到11张,LED照明行业百强格局渐趋稳定。

 


2018年,全球经济环境错综复杂,国内市场经济下行常态化、房地产降温、中美贸易摩擦加剧、环保管制持续催化等原因致使LED照明市场需求疲软,LED照明行业整体增速放缓并进入深化调整阶段,LED照明企业由此面临着极大的竞争与挑战。


在复杂多变的经营环境和不断加剧的市场竞争作用下,2018年,部分LED照明企业难抵风险、业绩下滑,这一点在“2018百强榜”中体现得尤为明显。据统计,在“2018百强榜”百强企业中,27家百强企业业绩较2017年出现不同程度的下滑,其中,21家为上市公司,6家为非上市公司。


有对比才有差距,同样为当年行业百强企业,“2017百强榜”中业绩下滑的百强企业仅有5家。事实上,由于多数企业业绩增长乏力甚至下滑,导致今年大照明“百强榜”组委会在征集企业申报函的过程中遭遇了较大的阻力。


在27家业绩下滑的LED照企当中,业绩“缩水”最严重的当属“飞乐音响”,2018年营收较2017年下降21.43亿元,原因是其主要子公司面临收入增长乏力、成本费用居高不下、业绩下滑等经营困境。值得一提的是,“2017百强榜”中下滑最严重的企业也是“飞乐音响”,业绩下滑16.69亿元,用“断崖式下滑”来形容亦不为过。


除了飞乐音响,不少LED照明上市公司2018年业绩同样面临下滑。以业绩下滑排名前十的上市公司为例,其它9家企业分别为东山精密、金莱特、雪莱特、三安光电、勤上股份、雷曼光电、圆融光电、珈伟新能以及利亚德。其中,业绩下滑超5亿元的有2家。据多家上市公司年报披露,外部经济环境复杂、国内市场竞争激烈、企业运营成本增加等因素导致其业绩增长乏力甚至出现下滑。就此,LED照明行业竞争和洗牌的进程正在不断加快。


在“2018年百强榜”中,“新鲜面孔”的出现同样受到关注。但与往届“百强榜”相比,进入“2018年百强榜”的新面孔数量再次下降,仅出现TCL华瑞照明、深圳爱克莱特科技、广东久量股份、重庆睿博光电、红壹佰照明等11家新入榜企业。


据统计,“2015百强榜”新面孔数量34家,“2016百强榜”新面孔数量21家,“2017百强榜”19家,而“2018百强榜”数量仅有11家,由此可以明显看出,LED照明企业之间竞争日趋激烈,行业早已进入深度洗牌阶段。


到今天,“中国LED照明灯饰行业100强”已进入第五个年头,能够进入百强名单的照企基本都是行业内知名度较高并具备一定规模的品牌企业。百强企业“新面孔”的逐年减少也说明,目前LED照明行业竞争格局已初步形成,上游芯片领域市场已形成寡头垄断,中游封装领域呈现中度集约化状态,下游照明应用领域则呈现较高分散状态。


在宏观经济下行以及LED产业增长乏力等因素的影响下,LED照明行业巨头企业尚且需要通过提升持续盈利能力、发掘新的盈利增长点以稳定其业绩,增加其利润,而在此形势下,新生品牌想要突围而出,其困难更是可想而知。


不变:


“业绩下滑企业数量增多”与“百强企业新面孔锐减”的背后是市场竞争的残酷升级与行业格局的日趋稳定,以及另外一个残酷现实:在“大者恒大、强者愈强”的马太效应作用下,品牌已然成为愈发稀缺的宝贵资源,中小企业及新生品牌冒头几率在快速下滑。

五、外销领域强者登陆,细分领域比拼激烈


变:

1、百强外销业绩第一从立达信(外销业绩448365万元)变成木林森(外销1038269万元),同时,木林森成为业界首家“外销业绩突破百亿元”的LED照明企业;


2、细分领域“王者”出现新变化,如“电工王者”被新入榜的公牛集团夺得。

 

“2018百强榜”,百强企业的外销业绩同比去年更为亮眼。以外销业绩排名,“2018百强榜”外销前十强企业均超过10亿元。其中,5家实现外销业绩同比增长,5家外销业绩遗憾同比下滑,总业绩达到341亿元。其中,木林森更是成为业界首家“外销业绩突破百亿元”的LED照明企业,外销业绩同比去年增长约92亿元,这也让广大照明企业看到了布局海外市场的广阔增值空间。


盘点可发现,“2018百强榜”外销前十强企业中,浙江区域企业数量最多,占据4席,成为外销产区佼佼者,若延展至前二十强,企业数量还将更多。此外,广东占据3席、上海1席、福建1席、安徽1席。


以外销表现来看,正如《半导体照明产业“十三五”发展规划》所指出的,我国已成为全球最大的半导体照明产品生产、消费和出口国,并正全力从半导体照明“产业大国”向“产业强国”转变。


与此同时,“2018百强榜”各细分领域“王者”也出现了新的变化。其中,“电工王者”被新入榜的公牛集团夺得,而公牛集团在本届榜单中也获得了总排名第3名的好成绩。此外,本届共有4家细分领域“王者”进入“2018百强榜”前十。其中,英飞特(电源)从去年的第45名前进到今年的第35名,欧曼科技(灯带)从去年的第92名前进到今年的第78名……从中不难看出,专业细分领域依旧具有极强的发展空间。


梳理榜单还可发现,各细分领域入榜竞争者也不少,如入榜封装企业还包括国星光电、鸿利智汇、兆驰股份等,入榜电工企业还包括鸿雁、深思等,入榜移动照明企业还包括长方集团、金莱特、海洋王、久量等,入榜车灯企业还有通宝光电等。值得注意的是,这些细分领域也开始被越来越多规?;笠悼粗?,如佛山照明、鸿利智汇做车灯,如木林森切入线性照明,如三雄极光进军封装,等等。因此,未来细分领域市场比拼或更激烈,甚至是惨烈。


此外,另值得注意的是,景观照明市场发展亦十分喜人,除了本次上榜的6家企业,亦有多家景观照明企业在过去的2018年实现业绩飙升,成为2018年LED照明市场的一大亮点。


不变:


作为全球最大的半导体照明产品生产、消费和出口国,在雷士、欧普、木林森、三雄极光等全面引领布局海外市场的当下,中国照明企业在国际舞台的话语权持续加强,充分演绎了“中国的百强榜  世界的百强榜”。此外,细分市场的业绩增长及品牌增值空间被持续肯定,越专业越精彩。未来,“百强榜”或许有更多细分领域强者上榜,这是趋势,也是未来。



六、广东收复半壁江山,深圳继续城市第一


变:

1、从49家重回53家,广东产区再次扬眉吐气;

2、从17家增至20家,深圳城市再次强势领跑;

3、从8家减至6家,中山木林森179亿夺榜首;



产区与产区的竞争,如同企业与企业的竞争,从来只有更激烈!

从省份排名来看,“2018百强榜”杀进省份前五的分别是:广东53家、浙江14家、福建9家、江苏8家、上海5家。其中,广东百强企业数量增加4家,浙江、福建以及江苏的百强企业数量与“2017百强榜”持平,上海减少1家。其余省份的百强企业分布则为:安徽3家,山东2家,湖南、四川、江西、湖北、北京、重庆各1家。与“2017百强榜”相比,重庆新增1家,江西减少2家,四川和湖南则各减少1家。


产区表现最为亮眼的依旧是“广东”?!?018百强榜”,广东省终于不负众望,再次收回半壁江山,百强企业入围数量回升至历史最高点“53家”。据统计,在过去四届“百强榜”中,广东省百强企业入围数量分别是53家、52家、50家、49家。今年,广东产区力挽往年颓势,可谓“扬眉吐气”,再次力证其在全国LED照明灯饰电工产业版图中不可动摇的霸主地位。


总体而言,从“2018百强榜”来看,各大LED照明产区之间在企业数量、规模效应、品牌效应、产品链完善等方面依然存在着一定的差距,其中,珠三角产业群整体优势遥遥领先。


广东省作为历届“百强榜”百强企业实力大省,今年的表现依旧亮眼,其百强企业分布城市为:深圳20家、佛山9家、中山6家、江门6家、惠州4家、广州3家、东莞2家、顺德1家,并且新增台山和潮州各1家。


值得一提的是,尽管“2018百强榜”以省份为衡量,入围企业数量高低明显,但就“2018百强榜”前十企业的区域分布,还是比较均衡的:广东3家、浙江3家、福建2家、上海1家、江苏1家。


从城市排名来看,“2018百强榜”位列前五的依次是深圳、佛山、厦门、中山、江门,与去年保持一致,区别只在于今年厦门超过中山排在前三。值得一提的是“深圳”,其百强企业数量再创新高,相比去年再添3家。从“2014百强榜”的8家到“2018百强榜”的20家,深圳延续往年一路反超的“凶猛态势”,在数量上继续碾压其它城市。


然而稍显遗憾的是,深圳的“百强质量”跟不上“百强数量”的发展速度,深圳区域的第一名“宝座”也从长方集团易主为兆驰股份。兆驰股份排在“2018百强榜”第21名,离进入百强前二十的门槛仅一步之遥。但综合历届“百强榜”的排名来看,深圳区域的百强企业想要进入前十,可谓是“路漫漫其修远兮”。


此外,“2018百强榜”佛山、厦门、中山区域的第一名企业与“2017百强榜”保持一致。令人惊喜的是,中山区域的第一名企业木林森股份有限公司,更是荣登今年“百强榜”榜首。令人遗憾的是,江门区域的第一名企业由“广东金莱特电器股份有限公司”变更为“江门市敏华电器有限公司”,且百强排名从第35名下滑至第47名。


不变:


无论是从“省份”还是“城市”来看,“2018百强榜”在百强数量、企业质量等方面与历届“百强榜”的变化并不大。广东、浙江、福建“三足鼎立”依旧难以撼动,全国LED照明灯饰产业版图总体格局趋于稳定。尤其是老牌LED照明产区在政策支持、规模实力、产业链条、区域品牌、技术人才等方面的深厚积累与特色优势仍在持续领跑。


...【详细】
棒棒彩票是合法机构吗
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